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The Congressional Budget Office on Thursday found that the Republican tax plan would add tens of trillions of dollars to the federal budget deficit over a 10-year period.

It was hardly a surprise. What was surprising, however, was the CBO’s estimate of how much, and how quickly, the plan would produce the massive fiscal payoff: tens of trillions of dollars.

The CBO’s score of the plan shows that it would increase the federal deficit by $1.9 trillion in 2018, then by $2.5 trillion in 2027, and $9.6 trillion in 2036. That amounts to an annual increase in the deficit of $754 billion in 2018 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, and $5.3 trillion in 2027.

The CBO’s score has some problems, and is probably not fully reliable. But they don’t undermine its main assertion — that the plan would produce big, and very quickly, benefits to the federal government’s fiscal health.

Consider the major component of the plan, called the “border adjustment” tax. Under this provision, the U.S. would impose a 20 percent tax on the imports that would be consumed by U.S. companies, and 10 percent tax on the exports that would be produced for other countries. This would be paid by importers, who would have to keep track of how much of their imported goods they consume in the U.S., and how much of their product would be consumed by businesses overseas. The revenues would then be taxed on their U.S. export.

The idea is to give Americans some of the benefits of competition from other countries, and to make trade more consistent with their domestic policies. (The goal of trade policy, in general, is to achieve “a level playing field,” to be fair and consistent).

There are many questions about the plan. Will manufacturers start building new plants in Mexico, for example, if their costs are going to be 20 percent higher? And will “side effects,” in the form of “pass-throughs” — corporate profits that aren’t immediately taxed — be reduced?

There are also no answers to these and other questions. We can only guess about them, and predictions are difficult.

But there is a simple reason why the CBO’s estimates are so reliable:


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Two teenagers were arrested after police say they stole hundreds of dollars worth of Bitcoin and then sold it to a Bitcoin exchange.

A 16-year-old Brooklyn teen and a 17-year-old were busted on charges of grand larceny and criminal possession of stolen property after allegedly taking over 500 BTC through a site called BitQuick.co at the end of January.

According to federal authorities, they were arrested on Tuesday after Brooklyn detectives working with the U.S. Secret Service traced the bitcoins to the teens who offered them in exchange for money.

“It was a matter of public interest,” said NYPD Deputy Commissioner Scott Morris. “Bitcoin is used by a significant number of people.”

In the case, the teens reportedly offered the BTC for $200, but the transaction never occurred. Instead, they offered to sell it for $180 in the BitQuick app to a person they did not know. According to the U.S. Secret Service, the buyer promised to pay for the BTC after he confirmed that he had received it from the teens.

The buyer reportedly gave the teens more than $1,000, but they told him it was a mistake and needed to be returned. The buyer then told the teens about police involvement, so they moved the bitcoins to an online account.

Brooklyn detectives then located the teens at the address where the money was moved and arrested them.

The teens were charged with grand larceny and criminal possession of stolen property.As promised, here is a list of all the challenges and difficulties we faced
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